Cheat Sheet

Israel’s 2026 Election: Party and Leadership Profiles

Apologies for the long break since my last post; I hope this is a useful guide for the moment to candidates for the Knesset election due by October this year. It will certainly go through changes as possible candidates drop in and drop out.

Currently the governing coalition is in disarray, since the Haredi (“ultra-Orthodox”) parties have officially left it because of the ongoing dispute over drafting yeshiva students, but do not want to force a new election.

NOTE: Parties must receive more than 3.25% of the total vote or else all their votes are discarded. Polling figures below represent an approximate average of polls taken mid-Jan. 2026.

Current Coalition Parties

Likud. Leader: Benjamin (Bibi) Netanyahu (PM). 36 seats; Polling: 26 . Traditional mainstream rightwing standard-bearer. In almost 20 years of Bibi’s dominance, all independent voices have been ejected, so the Likud is liable to fragment if Bibi leaves politics. Generally pro-settler, sympathetic to Jewish tradition, split on Haredi draft exemptions, instigator of “judicial reform” and strongly opposes an independent gov’t commission to investigate Oct. 7.

Shas. Aryeh Deri. 11 seats; polling: 8-10. Sephardi (Mizrahi) Haredi, including many traditionalist Mizrahim. Most important issues are institutionalizing Haredi draft exemptions and access to state funds for its schools and institutions. Its base is more pro-settler than UTJ’s.

United Torah Judaism. Moshe Gafni. 7 seats; polling: 7-8. Ashkenazi Haredi. Determined to maintain rabbinical control in its communities, for which draft exemptions are essential.

Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power). Itamar Ben-Gvir (Min. of Nat’l Security). 6 seats; polling: 8-10. Far right religious, emphasizing Jewish strength and nationalism. One of two parties controlling current coalition through credible threats to leave. Split on draft exemptions. Favors annexation of West Bank/Gaza, with expulsion or political neutralization of Palestinian population.

Religious Zionism. Bezalel Smotrich (Min. of Finance). 7 seats; polling <3%. Far right religious, with greater emphasis on public religiosity than JP. Separate parties mainly because their high-profile leaders don’t get along, with Ben-Gvir much more popular. Smotrich has encouraged settler violence in West Bank and organized de facto annexation.

Total government bloc polling around 52. The only other parties that might join a continuation of the current government with Bibi heading it are Blue and White (Gantz) or HaMiluimnikim (Reservists), which are both currently well below the minimum threshold.

Opposition Parties

Bennett 26 (new). Naphtali Bennett (former PM). Polling: 22. Bennett hopes to draw votes from the far right, mainstream right, and center. He was PM for most of the 2021-22 “Gov’t of Change,” which he hopes to replicate but without Arab party participation. He is nationalist and religious but he hopes his reputation for tolerance and inclusivity will allow him to head a new coalition.

HaDemokratim (new). Yair Golan. 4 seats (inherited from Labor). Polling: 12. Liberal Zionist; headed by retired Major General Yair Golan. Composed of remnants of the two parties of Israel’s Zionist left, Labor and Meretz. Currently in internecine conflict, including ex-Laborites trying to break an agreement guaranteeing at least 2 seats to ex-Meretznikim. Only Jewish party currently willing to sit in a government with Arab parties. Does not currently explicitly support the two-state solution but talks of “separation.” Moderate social-democratic.

Yisrael Beiteinu. Avigdor Lieberman. Seats: 6. Polling: 8-10. Pro-settler, nationalist, and strongly secular, traditionally appealing to Russian immigrants. Very strongly against Haredi draft exemption and any religious control. Pro-Greater Israel. Would prefer traditional rightwing gov’t but anti-Haredi. Supports independent investigation comm.

Yesh Atid. Yair Lapid (former PM). 24 seats. Polling: 9. Centrist, strongly secular, and middle-class. Lapid was architect of Gov’t of Change and briefly PM, but hasn’t been seen as showing strong leadership since Oct. 7. Strongly anti-Haredi draft exemptions and for Inquiry Commission.

Hadash-Ta’al. Ayman Odeh (not running 2026; new leader not yet chosen). Seats 5. Polling 5. Officially Israel’s Communist party, its voters are overwhelmingly Israeli Palestinians but always includes 1 Jew in a safe seat. Advocates equality between Jews and Arabs in Israel and a consensual 2SS with Palestinians, as well as traditional moderate socialist policies.

Ra’am (United Arab List). Mansour Abbas. 5 seats, Polling 5. Officially part of the legal portion of Israel’s Muslim Brotherhood org., it made history by supporting the Gov’t of Change. Culturally conservative; supports equality in Israel and a Palestinian state. Ending its relations with the MB, which is being declared illegal; reportedly seeking a Jew to run on its slate. Current polling shows it may be the only route to a government for any viable coalition, but most Jews against a coalition including an Arab party.

Blue & White. Benny Gantz (former IDF Commander-CoGS*). Seats 8. Polling <3%. Center-right. In 2019 Gantz led his party to 35 seats but was outwitted by Bibi and now seems a has-been. He helped stiffen Bibi’s party after Oct. 7 and has called for keeping Arab parties out of Israeli governments, so he’s perhaps the most rightward of the centrist parties.

New or Not Currently in the Knesset

Yashar (new). Gadi Eisenkot (former CGoS*). Polling: 9-11. Retired IDF commanders have traditionally gone into politics, starting highly popular and often falling low. Eisenkot has been in politics for years but only now formed his own party, that may join with another centrist or moderate rightist. Against Haredi exemptions; for Inquiry Comm.

Miluimnikim (Army Reservists-new) Yoaz Hendel <3%. Rightist/quirky. Advocates universal military conscription (including Israeli Palestinians and Haredim), and an independent investigatory Comm’n.

Balad (not currently in Knesset). Sami abu Shehadeh, Polling at <2%. Arab nationalist/leftist. In favor of Israel becoming a state of all its citizens (i.e., not a Jewish state) and creation of a state of Palestine on territory conquered in 1967. Unlikely to enter the Knesset unless it teams up with Hadash, which it has in the past.

Coalition note: Based on current figures, the most probable scenario is a coalition of Bennett’s party with HaDemokratim, Yesh Atid, Yisrael Beiteinu, and Yashar, which seem likely to receive a total of 56-60 seats, with Bennett as PM candidate. Theoretically, a Knesset member from one of the other parties in the new Knesset could “bring their seat with them” but that is unlikely. Thus, Ra’am would seem the likeliest party to help form a viable coalition, if candidates won’t have already committed themselves to refuse to sit in coalition with an “Arab” party.

If no government with 61 seats can be formed a new election must be held, as happened three times in 2019-21.

*Chief of the General Staff, i.e., Commander of the IDF.