First reactions
What hath Trump wrought?
These are my personal immediate reactions to the Trump peace plan announced this afternoon. It is better than I imagined but there is enough ambiguity in parts that it could easily fall apart. But Trump, despite what he is otherwise inflicting on this country and the world, seems to have come through, including (as usual) a rambling speech that literally put me to sleep.
1. Why the wait? This could have been done anytime after January 20! It was clear to all that Trump, and only Trump, could force Bibi to agree to a peace deal.
2. It’s couched as a take-it-or-leave it to Hamas; presumably to emphasize their powerlessness. What that could do, though, is push Hamas into refusing it – which may well be what Bibi is hoping for. There are vague points in the proposal, especially with regard to IDF movements, that Hamas may refuse to accept.
3. On the other hand, there are a number of elements that could be very positive, including:
a) Mention of the Saudi-French plan (9).
b) Participation by regional powers (10,11).
c) An apparent expectation that the PA will participate in the future (19).
d) “Israel will not occupy or annex Gaza” (16).
e) Hamas members will be offered amnesty (6). So much for “destroying” Hamas
f) Aid will be provided by the UN (presumably UNWRA) and the Red Crescent(8). The hated Gaza “Humanitarian” Foundation is implicitly barred.
g) “No one will be forced to leave Gaza” (12)
h) “Conditions may finally be in place for a credible path to Palestinian self- determination and statehood” (19). This is what Bibi has spent his life fighting to prevent – and some of us have spent decades fighting for.
Tentative Conclusion: This goes well beyond any current mainstream or center-left conversation in Israel. It cannot be accepted by the far-right parties, which must already be preparing to leave the government, thus ensuring new Israeli elections this winter.
I think that Bibi will have stirred up so much hatred against him that he cannot ever be Prime Minister again, even if he maintains control of the Likud and is supported by 25-30% of the population. Perhaps – and this is a long shot – it may even re-energize the embers of the anti-occupation left.
And I wish all who celebrate Yom Kippur this week an easy fast and g’mar hatimah tovah. May all of us – and most especially Palestinians and Israelis – be sealed in the book of life.
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Peter, As I speculated, Bibi might well be hoping that Hamas says no or tries to negotiate. The future is left vague with lots of things mentioned, but the role of he Arab states isn't clear, and they've never exactly been very sympathetic to the Palestinians. And who is in charge? DJT himself, who is not a fan of theirs. But there's little chance they'd get a better deal if Israel keeps on with the war. So my guess is that Hamas may accept it. And of course there will be another Islamist party eventually, just with a different name.
Paul, first reaction, yes, it’s better than I expected, and could have been worse. Other questions: Is there any room for negotiation, despite being issued as an ultimatum? It seems that Palestinians whether in Gaza or the WB will have little role in the immediate future of Gaza, sort of a return to a UN Gaza Mandate. How will this work? What role would Palestinians have in charting Gaza’s future? Presumably the sub rosa agreement is that Israel will have veto power over anything that happens, and will get to blame (Hamas, the PA, Tony Blair, worldwide antisemitism) for anything that Netanyahu doesn’t like. And of course, the question is whether Netanyahu will demand changes in its terms to “get it approved by the Knesset.” And the discussions of "development" rather than just rebuilding and making Gaza livable makes my skin crawl. But if this more or less ends the war, the genocide, gets the hostages out, returns some political prisoners, and perhaps opens the door to tentative steps forward, it is to be welcomed.